Stores Lure Buyers With Earlier Sales

For the nation’s retailers, the season of hope begins tomorrow.

Anxious to avoid destructive price cuts later, merchants are kicking off the holiday shopping season with a slew of incentives aimed at converting a multitude of last-minute shoppers into big-spending early birds.

Macy’s, Sears, Roebuck & Co. and other big department store chains are using promotions, contests and other deals to reverse consumers’ habitual tardiness. Shoppers have been buying later and later each year, waiting until desperate merchants slash prices to clear their shelves before Christmas.

Merchants are betting this season will be different, thanks to “buy early” incentives and tight inventory controls.

Though some analysts doubt the industry can reverse such entrenched consumer behavior, there are signs that some retailers are enjoying success. Scattered promotions and one-day sales in the weeks before Thanksgiving have lured shoppers in early.

Michael and Valerie Larsen were among those buying gifts at Westside Pavilion last Saturday.

“He wanted to wait,” Valerie Larsen said of her husband, “but I wanted to take advantage of the sales I’ve seen advertised.”

The “malls are already crowded,” said John Konarski, a retail analyst at the International Council of Shopping Centers. “Retailers have been telling consumers that inventories are slimmer and to buy early for the best selection. The message may be registering.”

Despite such optimism, analysts expect only a modestly successful holiday season. The National Retail Federation predicts a 3.8% increase in 1997 holiday sales nationally. A similar increase is expected in Southern California.

Last year, retailers posted a 4.5% gain nationwide in December, with California merchants recording sales increases of between 5% and 5.5% over 1995.

“The economy remains strong and there’s a high level of consumer confidence and low interest rates,” said Ira Kalish, a retail economist at the Los Angeles offices of Management Horizons. “On the other hand, there’s not a lot of pent-up demand and the level of consumer debt is relatively high.”

Retailers are offering promotions designed to create urgency. For example, both Macy’s and Robinsons-May held pre-Thanksgiving Day sales Wednesday in a bid to lure those who want to avoid Friday’s rush.

Mall operators have also been getting into the act. Chelsea GCA Realty, the New Jersey-based operator of two Southern California malls--Desert Hills Premium Outlets in Cabazon and Camarillo Premium Outlets--placed newspaper advertisements that included a voucher redeemable for a free coupon book. The books were available at the malls from mid-October through last week, and the coupons can be used throughout the year.

“Our message to consumers is, ‘You might not be ready to shop early, but we’re providing the incentives for you to visit us early,’ ” said Michele Rothstein, Chelsea’s marketing director.

Meanwhile, merchants are tracking sales closely so they can quickly restock hot items or cancel orders for those not selling well.

“Most of the better retailers are keeping a close eye on their inventories,” said Jay Scansaroli, chief of Arthur Andersen’s retail consulting services division. “If sales of a certain item are slow, they are quick to cancel future orders.”

Many big retailers hope to re-create the success of Sears, which was among the most successful of the chains last holiday season, posting a 9.5% sales increase for December thanks in part to a push toward early-bird shopping. It is using similar tactics this year. Last weekend it offered 10% off all merchandise, the launch of its “Wrap It Early” campaign.

Sears will try to build sales momentum Friday by raffling off a $500 shopping spree at each of its stores before 10 a.m.

“After our [weekend] sales event and our Friday promotion, we should know whether our shoppers are actually going to buy gifts earlier this year,” said John Costello, Sears senior executive vice president.

The incentives are in response to shoppers’ increasing wait-and-see attitude: The last Saturday before Christmas is now the biggest sales day for retailers. One industry study indicates that 41% of all holiday sales in 1996 were generated in the last nine days of the shopping season.

This year is especially challenging because there will be one less shopping day than in 1996 and because Hanukkah begins on Christmas Eve--later than usual.

Montgomery Ward is among the retailers advertising earlier and more heavily. Like Sears, it also offered a 10% discount on all store merchandise last weekend. Ward, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization in July, now hopes its new Thanksgiving-weekend-only promotions--an exclusive toy and a “Montgomery Bear” at reduced prices--will build traffic.

Bloomingdale’s, a unit of Federated Department Stores, is enjoying a strong year. It too is counting on exclusive items--among them, a music box that chimes out tunes from the musical “Ragtime”--to draw crowds.

“Specials available only at Bloomingdale’s have always been a selling point for us,” said Bloomingdale’s chief Michael Gould. “But store presentation will be a key. We’ve arranged merchandise to make it easier to find and buy. We’ve made it easier for customers to get in and around the store.”

The Ontario Mills mall, which covers more acreage than any other Southland shopping center, will be counting on attractions such as recently opened American Wilderness Experience--a re-creation of California’s habitats with live animals--to draw families. The opening of the attraction this month has helped generate a 20% increase in traffic at the mall, said Larry Siegel, chairman of Washington-based Mills Corp.

While avoiding a surplus of merchandise will be a key to most retailers’ success this season, unsold goods are the stock and trade of Apparel Designer Zone, a San Diego-based liquidator for major retailers. The company, which also operates San Diego-area stores known as Show and Apparel Zone, sells the leftover merchandise of chains at its liquidation sales in various parts of the country.

President Ben Badiee said he believes merchants pushing “buy early” strategies will meet with limited success.

“Retailers are doing a better job of managing their inventories,” he said. “But there will always be procrastinators, late-season bargain hunters and companies with excess merchandise.”

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It’s Only Just Begun

Given all the hoopla and hype, the Friday after Thanksgiving should be the most important shopping day of the holiday season. But that’s not the case. The fabled “Day After,” which kicks off the holiday shopping season, typically falls in the middle of the Top 10 days. The Saturday before Christmas is almost always the busiest day for major malls and shopping centers.

Top 10 shopping days during the 1996 holiday season

1. Saturday, Dec. 21

2. Monday, Dec. 23

3. Saturday, Dec. 14

4. Friday, Dec. 20

5. Friday, Nov. 29 (day after Thanksgiving)

6. Saturday, Dec. 7

7. Thursday, Dec. 19

8. Wednesday, Dec. 18

9. Saturday, Nov. 30

10. Friday, Dec. 13

Source: International Council of Shopping Centers

* FURRY FLURRY: Target is going all out with its holiday mascot. D4