Fighting off any challengers

Anyone seeking one of Newport-Mesa’s Congressional seats has about

500,000 reasons to think twice.

That’s the amount of money combined that Reps. Chris Cox and Dana

Rohrabacher are sitting on already.

But before would-be representatives flee to the hills, the good

news for them is that Cox, at least, is down more than $130,000

compared to his mid-year report of two years ago (of course, between

now and June he could make that up). Rohrabacher has about $6,000

more than he had collected by this point in 2001.

Cox, as of the end of March, has $409,000 and no debt. So far this

election cycle, he’s raised about $45,000.

Two years ago, he had been a bit more aggressive and was sitting

on $544,000. He’d already raised $128,000.

Rohrabacher -- who typically ends up with a lot less money than

his neighboring Congressman -- has a smidge more than $100,000, with

$19,000 in debt. He’s raised nearly $51,000 this election cycle.

Back in the middle of 2001, he had $94,000, with that same amount

of debt. Interestingly, he’d raised almost $100,000 by then.

Big early numbers tend to be most important in open election, such

as we’re seeing already with the Democrats running for president.

Back in 1999, an impressive war chest, not to mention a slew of

endorsements, kept John Campbell from facing an opponent when he ran

to fill Marilyn Brewer’s Assembly seat.

For Cox and Rohrabacher, who won’t face a primary opponent (unless

the earth’s axis shifts and the sun suddenly starts setting in the

north), the money will help keep them from facing a challenger with

significant support from other Democrats. Their seats, of course, are

pretty safe (Gerrie Schipske, who came very close to knocking off a

Republican incumbent in Long Beach in 2000, only managed 32% against

Rohrabacher in 2002). But making the battle that much tougher will

keep the national Democratic Party from tossing money here that could

be put to a race a Democrat could win elsewhere.

The money is not all in favor of the Republicans. Sen. Barbara

Boxer, whom the GOP would love to knock off, has a big bank behind

her. Although her April filings aren’t yet available, at the start of

the year she had almost $1.4 million, with no debt. And she’d raised

more than $2.2 million.

Boxer’s numbers are worth mentioning because, while Cox’s isn’t a

first-list name, it does come up in discussions about challengers to

the Senate seat. And he is doing better, monetarily, than at least

one of the top-flight possibilities: Rep. Mary Bono. She has just

$120,000 on hand, according to her April filing.

If Cox is giving the Senate race serious thought, he most likely

paid close attention to a Tuesday report in the New York Times. It

laid out the White House’s strategy for President Bush’s reelection

bid, which essentially comes down to keeping the president out of the

political fray as long as possible, and then go into overdrive in the

last two months of the race.

It’s an interesting idea, based around the best use of GOP money

(run TV ads when the Democratic nominee is pretty well decided but is

lacking money from the primaries) and keeping Bush “at work” rather

than “at politicking.”

But a downside for California Republicans could be that they lose

out on their political trump card. If Bush is not planning many

political appearances until the final weeks of the election, will he

avoid coming to the state to campaign for Boxer’s GOP challenger?

That balancing act will be one to watch for next year.

* S.J. CAHN is the managing editor. He can be reached at (949)

574-4233 or by e-mail at [email protected].