Turnout predictions

The Orange County electorate often turns out in higher percentages than in California as a whole, but some election watchers expect about 10% to 15% fewer voters here than the statewide prediction of 55%.

As in past elections, a good portion of Orange County’s 1,497,365 registered voters may already have voted absentee. The Orange County Registrar of Voters reported collecting 263,955 absentee ballots as of Monday, or 17.6% of county voters.

With no national top-of-ticket races and a lackluster governor’s race, UC Irvine political science professor Mark Petracca said, “I really think turnout could end up being lower than everybody expects.”

Matt Cunningham, who posts Orange County political news at the OC Blog, pegged total turnout in the mid-40% range, and Louis DeSipio, another UC Irvine political scientist, said he expects between 40% and 45% to cast ballots in Orange County.

“I think the most interesting thing to see will be the mix of absentee ballots versus Election Day ballots,” Cunningham said.

Absentee ballots went from 14.2% of votes cast in the 2002 general election to 26.6% of ballots cast in November 2004, and the trend has been toward more pre-election voting.

While Orange County voter participation spiked at 73.2% in the last general election, there were presidential candidates on the ballot. The last regular gubernatorial election, in 2002, drew 51% of county voters.

Local issues — a controversial council election in Costa Mesa and two competing initiatives plus six council seats in Newport Beach — aren’t widely expected to boost participation today.

While Orange County Democratic Party Chairman Frank Barbaro said he thinks Costa Mesa’s turnout will be huge, Petracca pointed out that on a long ballot like today’s, people tend to lose interest by the time they get to the down-ticket races and issues.

“I think people motivated by those [local] races will turn out, but I suspect that’s a relatively small share of the electorate,” DeSipio said. “The people who care have already gone to the polls.”