Racing! A look at the BC Classic futures pool

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we get one last opinion on Santa Anita’s new program.

This weekend will be the final pool for future wagers on the Breeders’ Cup Classic. It closes at Sunday at 3 p.m. PDT.

It’s a surprise to no one that Accelerate is listed as the 5-2 morning-line favorite after his win in the Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita. He was the favorite after the first pool at 3-1. But remember, these are morning-line odds and the real odds will be determined by those betting.

West Coast, who finished second to Accelerate in the Awesome Again, is the 8-1 second morning-line favorite. West Coast was coming off a six-month layoff. Then, at 10-1 are McKinzie, winner of the Pennsylvania Derby, also off a long layoff and Catholic Boy, winner of the Travers Stakes and Thunder Snow, second in this past weekend’s Jockey Club Gold Cup and winner of the Dubai World Cup in the spring.

Now, it’s interesting in that you could make the argument that the top three horses (or at worst, three of the top five) are based in Southern California. Two of the top five horses, McKinzie and Catholic Boy, are 3-year-olds. Of course, the best 3-year-old is enjoying an extended holiday in Kentucky.

We’ll ask the question again, probably after the Breeders’ Cup, and if Accellerate wins, if he or Justify is the horse of the year.

Here are the morning-line odds for this weekend’s futures pool.

1. Accelerate 5-2

2. Axelrod 20

3. Bravazo 30

4. Catholic Boy 10

5. Collected 30

6. Discreet Lover 20

7. Diversify 15

8. Gunnevera 30

9. Lone Sailor 50

10. McKinzie 10

11. Mendelssohn 12

12. Mind Your Biscuits 15

13. Pavel 20

14. Roaring Lion 20

15. Seeking the Soul 15

16. Thunder Snow 10

17. Toast of New York 30

18. West Coast 8

19. Yoshida (JPN) 15

20. All Others-Field Bet 20

Last thought on SA program

I had put the topic of the new Santa Anita program to bed after publishing a lot of your comments. But, I got this one that brought up some practical points coming from a different point of view. They belong to Dave Drexler. So, Dave, its yours.

“I can give you a perspective from an off-track facility (Ventura Derby Club). Since the new program arrived, we are only offered one program, which is the one with Santa Anita and Golden Gate past performances. We pay $3.50 for this, and it is not available the day before. Any regular customer who bets frequently finds this particularly useless because those people all need the Daily Racing Form to be able to play other tracks.

“The program we received last Saturday was particularly distasteful because ours contained 10 pages with black ink smears over most of the page and four pages that were completely unreadable. I'm sure this was a printing problem, but it was the least of my concerns.

“The size of the program is my biggest concern. It is very difficult to carry around as a reference to make a bet at the betting windows. Add to that the problems it creates when four people are sitting at a table trying to eat lunch and some or all of them are trying to reference the program at the same time they are referring to the Racing Form.

“I believe many of the regular customers here will decide to do what I have done, i.e. forego buying a program and rely on the Racing Form exclusively.”

Victor Espinoza update

A lot of you have asked how Victor Espinoza is doing in his recovery. The simple answer is we don’t quite know with certainty where he is in coming back from the injuries suffered when his mount, Bobby Abu Dhabi, died during training. According to Brian Beach, his agent, we’ll know more the end of next week when he completes the latest round of doctors visits. Only then can you start to talk about a timeline. When we know, you’ll know.

The necropsy on Bobby Abu Dhabi updated the cause of death from heart attack to a broken neck after he broke his right front seismoid. Jeremy Balan of the Bloodhorse has more details. Just click here.

Santa Anita preview

Not one of the Santa Anita’s better cards on Friday unless you have an affinity for claimers. You can claim a horse in seven of the eight races. The first race is even at the bottom level of $6,250 claimers. There are three turf races, the second, fifth and seventh.

The feature is the seventh a 1 1/8 mile turf allowance/optional claimer for 3-year-olds. Move Over is the favorite at 7-2. The name reminded me of a conversation I had last week with Eddie Delahoussaye in which he talked about liking Hank Williams.

It reminded me of the time my wife and I decided to make a long drive and only listen to Hank Williams songs. We’re about two hours into it when we decide every song sounds about the same. This is a long way to get to one of his songs “Move it on Over,” which probably has absolutely no connection to the naming of this horse as Move Over. If you’ve forgotten, take a listen to Hank’s song. Just listen here.

Back to your regularly schedule programming. Move Over is saddled by John Sadler and ridden by Tyler Baze. He was sixth in his last race, the La Jolla Handicap. He won his last allowance at Santa Anita.

There are two horses at 4-1. Andesh, for Phil D’Amato and Flavien Prat, was 10^th in the Del Mar Derby, his last race. He ran most of his races in Ireland. Shadow Sphinx is also 4-1 for Richard Baltas and Geovanni Franco. He was second in his last allowamce race. He won his last two claimers.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 7, 10 (3 also eligible), 9, 9, 10 (1 AE), 7, 9, 11.

Santa Anita review

In Thursday’s feature, a 1 1/16 mile allowance, El Huerfano fought gamely in the stretch to win the $53,000 race. He ran most of the race from near the front and was never headed in the stretch to win by one length.

El Huerfano paid $7.20, $3.60 and $2.60 for trainer Peter Miller and jockey Flavien Prat. Shivermetimbers was second and Pepe Tono was third. Morning-line favorite Gato Del Oro was scratched.

Bob Ike’s SA play of the day

SECOND RACE: No. 7 Dearborn (4-1)

Maiden filly from the Tom Proctor barn was the beaten choice going two turns last time but seems like a perfect candidate to cut back in distance and run well coming down the hillside course. Horses with tactical speed that shorten up to the hill distance traditionally do well, so no excuses here for the sophomore daughter of Malibu Moon.

Thursday’s result: Worth Turk (7-2) made a looming move on the far turn but flattened out in mid-stretch and settled for third in the seventh race.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Los Alamitos weekend preview

This weekly segment is in the hands of Orlando Gutierrez, marketing and media maven at Los Al. So, the floor is yours, Orlando.

“It’s a weekend filled with quarter-horse racing activities at Los Alamitos Race Course. On the track, there’s the Grade III PCQHRA Breeders Derby and Schvaneveldt Handicap on Friday night, the Grade II PCQHRA Breeders Futurity on Saturday night, and the trials to the Wild West Futurity on Sunday night. The 14^th annual Los Alamitos Equine Sale will also be on Saturday and Sunday on the grounds adjacent to the Orange County track. Both sessions will begin at 10 a.m. and continue until about 4 p.m. So far, a total of 319 hips will be in the two sessions. Sale graduates in recent years have included J Fire Up and Worth Doing, the last two winners of the Los Alamitos Two Million Futurity, Governor’s Cup Futurity winner Powerful Favorite, Governor’s Cup Derby winner Black Fryday and Charger Bar Handicap winner Kiddy Up Cowgirl.

“J Fire Up and Black Fryday will both run on Friday night in the $152,000 PCQHRA Breeders Derby. Black Fryday won their meeting in a stakes final, winning the Governor’s Cup. J Fire Up avenged the loss by beating Black Fryday by a nose in a trial to the PCQHRA Breeders Derby. Meanwhile, Moonie Blues could be the one to beat in the 400-yard Derby after cruising to the fastest qualifying time in the Sept. 15 trials. This will be Moonie Blues’ fourth appearance in a Derby final. She’s finished third in all three attempts.

“Ask a quarter-horse racing fan to name the breed’s all-time greatest trainer and the answer will likely be Blane Schvaneveldt. The legendary Blane still holds the record for most quarter-horse wins (3,982), stakes wins (386), and training titles (38) at Los Alamitos, and no one has won more Champion of Champions than his nine. Ten horses will be in the Schvaneveldt at 400 yards led by defending winner Jess A Cowboy.

“The richest race of the weekend is the $365,000 PCQHRA Breeders Futurity on Saturday. Filly Estelline will go after her third straight win when she heads the a field of 10 juveniles at 350 yards. Estelline broke her maiden by ¾ lengths in her local debut on Aug. 25 and then had the fastest qualifying time in the trials of 17.55 seconds with Saul Ramirez, Jr. aboard on Sept. 16. Trainer Danny Montes believes that Estelline can continue her current form.

“’She ran big in the trials,’ Montes said. ‘She was tired at the end of the race, but she back to her old self a couple of days later. She’s been doing great. Saul had never been on her going into the trials. He’s now had a chance to get on her and take out to the track. He knows her better now. He’s a money rider.’

“Sunday has five trials to the Wild West Futurity. The race is open to horses that have competed in the Northwest and Intermountain regions, plus Nevada, Arizona and Canada. Zoomin For Spuds won the 2015 running before surprising in the 2016 Champion of Champions. Moonie Blues won the Wild West last year, then finished second to J Fire Up in the Los Alamitos Two Million Futurity, and is now the favorite to win the PCQHRA Breeders Derby.”

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

THIRD RACE: No. 5 Stoneys Mr Cruiser (9-5)

He faded at much longer distance over the daytime one-mile oval in last outing and has won at tonight’s 870-yard distance. He was unlucky to lose vs. rival Devils Informer two outs ago when hopping up at the start from his outside post and only dropping a ¾-length decision. Gelding has captured 25 percent of his 28 starts and can survive pace pressure.

Final thought

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Now, the stars of the show, Thursday’s results and Friday’s entries.

PEACH COVE (NZ) chased outside a rival, came out four wide into the stretch, bid outside foes under urging in midstretch to gain the lead in deep stretch and inched away late. BELIEVE INDEED stalked outside a rival then bid three deep on the backstretch and second turn, took a short advantage between foes in midstretch, drifted out a bit from the whip, fought back between rivals and held second. SEKHMET'S REVENGE stalked a bit off the rail then inside, came out leaving the second turn and three deep into the stretch, bid between foes, drifted in a bit in the drive and edged rivals for the show. SUBIC BAY squeezed some just after the start, chased outside a rival then between foes, angled in leaving the second turn, came out and bid between horses in tight in midstretch, steadied nearing the sixteenth pole, angled in and was edged for third. AWARD IT settled inside, went up three deep on the backstretch and into the second turn, angled in leaving that turn, came out in the stretch and put in a late bid at a minor award. BEAUTIFUL BECCA stalked outside a rival, bid between horses on the backstretch and second turn, fought back between foes in midstretch and weakened late. ROAD TEST saved ground chasing the pace, was shuffled back early on the second turn, came out in midstretch and lacked the needed rally. TOPAZ TIME sped to the early lead, set the pace inside, dueled along the rail on the backstretch and second turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. A claim of foul by the rider of SUBIC BAY against the second and third finishers for alleged interference in midstretch was not allowed by the stewards, who ruled there was never sufficient room for SUBIC BAY to get through.

PLEASANT D'ORO stalked off the rail, bid three deep on the second turn, took the lead leaving that turn, inched away in midstretch and drew off under urging. JUSTIN'S QUEST close up stalking the early pace off the inside, bid outside the pacesetter, dueled between foes on the second turn and edged a rival for the place. PITINO sped to the early lead, set the pace inside then dueled along the rail, fought back on the second turn, was no match for the winner in the stretch and was edged late for second. HOLLY BLAME pulled early, angled in and chased inside, came a bit off the rail in the stretch and weakened. SUPER CLASSIC settled just off the rail, went outside a rival into the second turn, came out some in the stretch and had little left for the drive.

MUCHO UNUSUAL dueled inside, inched away on the turn, kicked clear and drew off under a steady hand ride and a long hold late. APACHE PRINCESS had good early speed and dueled between horses, stalked just off the rail on the turn and into the stretch and just held second. DON'TBEBOISTEROUS broke inward a bit and slowly, settled inside, came out leaving the turn and three wide into the stretch and just missed the place. GOTTA BE LUCKY had speed between horses then stalked three deep, came four wide into the stretch and weakened. SEDAMAR dueled three deep, stalked off the rail on the turn, angled inward nearing the stretch and also weakened. BLUEBERRY PRINCESS stalked between horses on the backstretch and a bit off the rail on the turn and had little left for the drive. CASSIE BELLE broke a bit slowly, saved ground chasing the pace, dropped back on the turn and gave way.

BELLE MONTE stalked outside then alongside a rival, bid three deep into the stretch to gain the lead and won clear under left handed urging. JABBER NOW close up stalking the pace a bit off the rail then inside on the turn, continued along the rail in the stretch and was second best. MARRIED BY NOW a bit slow into stride, was taken off the rail on the backstretch, angled to the inside into the stretch, came out in midstretch then steadied off heels past the eighth pole but gained the show. K P'S SMOKIN broke a bit slowly, stalked just off the rail, came out leaving the turn and four wide into the stretch and did not rally. COMPLETE DISCREET sped to the early lead, angled in and set the pace a bit off the rail and weakened in the final furlong. CREATIVE SPARK broke out and bumped a rival, stalked between horses then outside a rival leaving the turn, came three deep into the stretch and also weakened. AS A RULE saved ground chasing the pace, came out leaving the turn and around a rival into the stretch and lacked a further response. LOOKINGFORTHEWIRE chased outside then off the rail, came a bit wide into the stretch and had little left for the drive. GARRULOUS GAL broke in and bumped a rival, stalked three deep, dropped back between horses on the turn, gave way and was eased in the final furlong.

PORTAL CREEK dueled three deep, inched clear on the turn and drew off under urging while drifted to the inside in the stretch. THANKS stalked outside then off the rail, came a bit wide into the stretch and was clearly second best. HOLA MAZUMA was in a good position stalking the pace off the inside, came four wide into the stretch and held third. DIVINE DHARMA broke in and bumped a rival, settled outside then angled in a bit off the rail on the turn and was edged for the show. SHARP IMAGE broke a bit slowly, settled off the pace inside, came out into the stretch and improved position. FRISKY FOX chased three deep then outside a rival on the turn and did not rally. PRINCESS BECKY chased between horses then outside a rival, came three deep into the stretch and lacked a further response. AWEPOLLONIA bumped at the start, settled between horses then off the rail, split rivals on the turn, came four wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. BORUSSIA saved ground chasing the pace, continued inside on the turn and into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. CURRYFORTHREE BANG had good early speed and dueled inside, stalked along the rail on the turn and weakened in the stretch. AMERICAN HEART stalked outside, dropped back on the turn, came four wide into the stretch and also weakened. MADAME JEANETTE dueled between foes, stalked leaving the turn, came three deep into the stretch and gave way.

EL HUERFANO prompted the pace outside a rival, took the lead and inched away then angled in on the second turn, fought back when headed in the stretch, regained the advantage under urging a sixteenth out and gamely prevailed. SHIVERMETIMBERS stalked inside, went outside a rival on the second turn, bid outside the winner to take a short lead in the stretch, battled under left handed urging then had the rider lose the whip inside the sixteenth pole and was outfinished. PEPE TONO angled in on the first turn and chased inside, went outside a rival on the second turn and held third. IKE WALKER stalked outside a rival then off the rail, came three deep into the stretch and was edged for the show. GIANT INFLUENCE settled outside a rival chasing the pace, came out four wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. FERGUSON had speed between foes then angled in and dueled inside, stalked on the second turn, dropped back into the stretch and weakened.

STARTING BLOC a step slow to begin, angled in and settled inside then a bit off the rail, went outside a rival on the backstretch, came out four wide into the stretch, rallied under a vigorous hand ride to gain the lead nearing the sixteenth pole, drifted in and held under a long hold late. SOUTER (GB) angled in and saved ground chasing the pace, continued along the rail in the stretch and finished willingly. WORTHY TURK chased outside a rival then three deep into and on the second turn and into the stretch and gained the show. SNAZZY DRESSER sped to the early lead, set the pace inside, came off the rail into the stretch, was between foes in deep stretch and was outfinished for a minor award. RINSE AND REPEAT stalked outside a rival then between foes into and on the second turn, came out into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. HEARTFULLOFSTARS three deep into the first turn, chased outside a rival then a bit off the rail, found the fence into and on the second turn and into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. TIDAL EFFECT saved ground chasing the pace, came out into the stretch and did not rally. VINTAGE HOLLYWOOD between horses early, stalked the pace inside, came out into the stretch and weakened.

VEGAS ITCH stalked between horses then three deep between foes on the turn and into the stretch, rallied under steady handling to gain the lead in deep stretch and proved best. FOR THE HUSTLE had speed between foes then inched away and angled in, set the pace inside and held on well but was overtaken late and just saved the place. POWERFUL THIRST chased a bit off the rail then between foes, was shuffled back on the turn, came out four wide into the stretch and finished well. PULPIT'S DIRTY RED stalked five wide then four wide on the turn and into the stretch and was outfinished. THEFOURFORTYFOURTH chased between horses, came three deep into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. SKAGIT RIVER dropped back off the rail, went outside leaving the turn and five wide into the stretch and improved position. SUPREME GIANT chased between foes then a bit off the rail on the turn and did not rally. GOTNOQUIT in a bit tight early, settled a bit off the rail, steadied midway on the turn and again into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. BARTLETT HALL pulled and chased outside, came five wide into the stretch and did not rally. VICTOR'S SHOW had speed between horses then stalked between foes and weakened in the drive. SMOKIN B sent along inside, saved ground stalking the pace and also weakened. BOOGIE settled off the rail, came out four wide into the stretch and was not a threat. ACHIEVED prompted the pace between horses then stalked three deep, dropped back on the turn, angled in and gave way.