AVOCADO LEAGUE PREVIEW : Carlsbad Leads--in Confidence

Before the season, Carlsbad Coach John Nelson told anybody who would listen that his team would win the Avocado. Even though Carlsbad’s nonleague season ended with a 6-6 record, Nelson is not backing down.

“We should be really good,” Nelson said. “I’d be disappointed if we didn’t win the league. I may have put a lot of pressure on my kids with the statements I made, but that’s OK. I just pretty much say what I think. I think that’s better than beating around the bush.”

El Camino lost three of five starters from a team that tied for the league championship with Ramona and lost to San Pasqual in the Division II title game, but the Wildcats might be the only team that can challenge Carlsbad. They enter league with a 7-4 record after a grueling nonleague schedule.

El Camino Coach Ray Johnson typically has three scorers averaging more than 15 points, but this season, his offense has come from a different player almost every night. But the key to El Camino’s success should come on defense.

“This may be the best defensive team I’ve ever had,” Johnson said.

Ramona and San Pasqual won Section championships last year and contended for the league title, but they won’t be close this year. Ramona lost leading scorer Travis Knight, who transferred to Alta High in Utah. San Pasqual lost Erik Meek, the Times’ San Diego Section player of the year, to Duke.

“The whole league is flip-flopped except for El Camino,” San Pasqual Coach Tom Buck said.

Does Carlsbad have enough to back up Nelson’s statements?

“If they’re ever going to do it, it’s going to be this year,” Buck said.

THE RACE

Top contenders: El Camino (7-4), Carlsbad (6-6).

Could surprise: Escondido (5-4), Rancho Bernardo (7-4).

Looking for help: San Pasqual (3-8), Ramona (4-4), San Marcos (3-5), Oceanside (4-6).

Games of the year: Carlsbad at El Camino, Friday; El Camino at Carlsbad, Feb. 5. Nelson’s controversial comments in North County papers have done a better job hyping these games than any public relations firm could have done. When Johnson saw Nelson at the Above the Rim Tournament, he asked him, “Hey John, should we even play?”

THE PLAYERS

The man: Escondido’s 6-foot-8 center Damian Cephas, when he wants to be. Cephas is the league’s leading returning scorer at 19.3 points a game. Through nine games this season, he is averaging 19.4. But Cephas has been known to take a night or two off. He sandwiched 26 and 35-point games around an eight-point effort this season. At times, Cephas plays like a 7-footer. Other times, he shoots fade-away jumpers and plays like a 6-footer.

If Escondido Coach Mike Williams can keep Cephas focused on the basket, he could have one of the county’s better players and one of the league’s better teams.

Who will fill Erik Meek’s shoes? No one. Buck has not even tried to replace Meek, who averaged 29 points and 14 rebounds last year and will go down as one of the better high school players in San Diego County history. Sophomore Josh Trowbridge, a 6-5 center, and junior Shane Carlson, a 6-3 forward, are doing their best to give San Pasqual a presence inside. But without Meek, Buck said San Pasqual is mostly a perimeter team. “We rarely score our points in the paint anymore,” he said.

Senior center Horace Corey, San Marcos’ 6-5 transfer from Waterloo, Iowa, is easily the best newcomer to the Avocado. San Marcos went 3-2 before Corey, who is averaging 21 points a game, severely sprained his ankle. Without him, the Knights are 0-3. But San Marcos Coach Billy Singh said Corey practiced this week and should be ready to play some tonight against Carlsbad.

El Camino guard Chris Dade, who transferred from Vista last year but didn’t play until this season, has made an impact. He is the Wildcats’ leading scorer at 18 points a game and is one of their top defenders. Dade, a junior, already is being recruited by the University of Washington.

Others to watch: Carlsbad’s Kewan Shariff (18.6 points) and Chad Nelson (14.0 points) might be the best guard tandem in the league. Rancho Bernardo’s Kirk Hipple (18.5 points), a 6-6 center, should give the Broncos a chance inside against Corey and Cephas. San Pasqual guards David Durst (15.0 points) and Ernie Silva (13.6 points) give the Eagles a decent outside game. Ramona’s Rusty Hoss and Cody Cunningham don’t have the scoring ability of Knight, but they are tough on the boards.

THE INTANGIBLES

Biggest travel budget: Ramona easily gets the nod after traveling to Orlando, Fla., for the Tournament of Champions and staying four days. No other team in the Avocado left the state, although El Camino came close. Johnson took his team to Red Bluff, which is only 100 miles south of the Oregon border.

The grade factor: Johnson has not lost anyone to grades yet this year, but that doesn’t mean he’s not worried. “I’ve always said, ‘Our biggest opponent is not the other team, it’s the report card,” he said.