Assembly May See Biggest Overhaul : Politics: Anti-incumbent sentiment, redistricting and Proposition 140 term limits could result in one of the largest turnovers in the legislative body in history.

SACRAMENTO — Growing anti-incumbent sentiment among disenchanted California voters, fueled by the House check overdraft scandal in Washington, could mean more trouble than ever for members of the state Assembly seeking reelection, political strategists are theorizing.

“I think there’s going to be a lot of turnover,” said veteran Democratic elections consultant Richie Ross. “There is an unprecedented level of voter anger and a sense of betrayal out there.”

That feeling combined with the redistricting of every legislative seat and the motivation by many members to leave the Legislature because of Proposition 140 term limits could result in one of the biggest shake-ups in the history of the Assembly.

In the 80-member Assembly, there are 25 open seats in which no incumbent is running in the June primary, making for wide-open races. The Democrats, led by Speaker Willie Brown of San Francisco, hold a 47-33 vote majority over the GOP. Come the general election in November, many Republicans say they will have one of their best chances in years to take control of the lower house or substantially narrow that gap.

Republican Gov. Pete Wilson has pledged to wage an all-out fight to gain a GOP voting majority. The governor has made two campaign appearances on behalf of Republican Assembly candidates and is expected to step up his efforts in the fall.

Dan Schnur, Wilson’s communications director, said: “Once the primary is over and the general election campaigning starts, he will be hitting the road for Assembly Republican candidates statewide.”

Reminded that the governor’s popularity has slipped in recent public opinion polls, Schnur said Wilson’s help is still seen as a plus. “What most political professionals believe is that the governor’s endorsement of a candidate or an officeholder is usually a benefit,” he said.

The House check overdraft scandal--definitely not a benefit for incumbents anywhere--is seen as something that Assembly incumbents must make clear is not related to them. Bill Cavala, Brown’s lieutenant in charge of coordinating legislative races, has warned Democratic members to make the point often.

“I am recommending to every Democrat in the Assembly that they tell the electorate they did not bounce any checks and there is no Assembly bank for them to write checks on,” Cavala said.

Redistricting also poses a special problem for many incumbents, but Cavala said he expects Democrats to end up with 48 Assembly seats, one more than the party now has.

Bill Temple, Cavala’s GOP counterpart, agreed that growing anti-incumbent sentiment could have an effect on the legislative elections. But Temple added that he did not know how much of an effect and how many incumbents might be ousted from office.

“Fair district lines (because of legislative reapportionment) also may mean that some incumbents will be thrown out,” Temple said.

As for the possibility of the GOP achieving a 41-vote Assembly majority this year, he said: “I think it’s possible, but everything would have to go perfectly. Realistically, we should get up to 36 to 38 votes.”

As an example of how redistricting can scramble district lines and interrupt political careers, there are two June primary election races in Southern California involving five Assembly members, which means that three will not be returning to Sacramento.

Assemblyman Richard E. Floyd (D-Carson) squares off against Assemblyman Dave Elder (D-San Pedro) in the heavily Democratic 55th District, which includes Carson, part of the Los Angeles Harbor area, Artesia and some of Compton.

In north Orange County’s Republican-leaning 67th District, there is a three-way race involving Assembly members Tom Mays (R-Huntington Beach), Doris Allen (R-Cypress) and Nolan Frizzelle (R-Fountain Valley), all of whom are seeking the GOP nomination.

It also appears that at least five Democratic Assembly incumbents and three Republican incumbents will be faced with big-money fights in efforts to survive in the fall.

The Democrats are Assemblymen Bob Epple (D-Norwalk) in the 56th District, Dede Alpert (D-Del Mar) in the 78th District, Mike Gotch (D-San Diego) in the 76th District, Tom Umberg (D-Garden Grove) in the 69th District, and Dan Hauser (D-Arcata) in the 1st District.

The first four will face more Republicans as a result of the court-ordered reapportionment. In Alpert’s district, former Assemblyman Jeff Marston is attempting to make a comeback. Hauser is also facing a tough fight in a district that includes a wide voter mix that ranges from unemployed fishermen and loggers to wealthy professionals.

Republicans considered to be vulnerable are Assembly members Dean Andal (R-Stockton) in the 17th District, Charles W. Quackenbush (D-Saratoga) in the 24th District and Tricia Hunter (R-Bonita), who is running in the redrawn 80th District.

Andal, who first won office in a light-turnout special election, must run in a heavily Democratic district. Quackenbush lost a big chunk of the conservative GOP part of his district because of reapportionment. Assemblyman Steve Clute (D-Riverside) decided to retire instead of running against Hunter, although his name remains on the ballot as the incumbent.

There also are half a dozen or so marginal open seats with close party registration figures, according to the experts.

They include the 3rd District seat formerly held by Assemblyman Chris Chandler (R-Yuba City), who decided to retire; the 6th District seat formerly occupied by Assemblyman William F. Filante (R-Greenbrae), who is running for Congress, and the 7th District seat formerly held by Assemblywoman Bev Hansen (R-Santa Rosa), who also decided to retire.

Also in doubt are the 10th District, in the southern part of Sacramento County and the northern part of San Joaquin County; the 25th District in Tuolommne, Madera and Mariposa counties; the 53rd District in the Venice-Torrance area; the 61st District in the San Bernardino-Ontario-Chino area, and the 64th District in Riverside County.

The growing anti-incumbent sentiment is not new. Four Assembly incumbents were dumped at the polls in the fall of 1990, when voters also approved Proposition 140, which clamped a lid on the number of terms that lawmakers can serve in office.

The losers were Assembly members Norm Waters, Curt Pringle, Sunny Mojonnier and Jeff Marston. Pringle also is attempting to make a comeback in Orange County’s 68th District.

At that time, the voters had been subjected to a barrage of news headlines and stories regarding a continuing FBI investigation of political corruption at the state Capitol that resulted in the conviction of two former senators, Joseph B. Montoya and Paul Carpenter.

Last November, former Sen. Alan Robbins pleaded guilty and resigned from office as a result of the same probe. He is awaiting sentencing. Montoya is in prison. Carpenter’s conviction has been overturned, but a retrial is expected.

Another top Sacramento political consultant, David Townsend, said: “All of the pollsters will tell you that the public has never been as angry as they are today.

“In the past, people talked a lot about throwing incumbents out, but I think this time we are actually going to see a lot of incumbents actually get tossed.”

* ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS: Graphic chronicles the competitive 1992 Assembly races. A12