World Bank, IMF OK New Nations : Finance: Most of the former Soviet republics are granted membership in the capitalist world’s premier economic fraternities, once reviled by the Kremlin.
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WASHINGTON — The fragile new nations struggling to rise from the rubble of what was once the Soviet Union were granted membership Monday in the capitalist world’s premier economic fraternities, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
In practical terms, the vote to admit Russia and most of the other republics means that they can become eligible for tens of billions of dollars from the West. The aid would be used to assist an effort that Yegor T. Gaidar, the primary architect of Russia’s economic shock therapy program, described as “the most important event at the end of this century.”
But just as powerful is the symbolism of the new alliance the former Soviet republics have forged as they turned their backs on generations of Soviet leaders who denounced the IMF and World Bank as tools of capitalist repression.
In the late 1940s, when Czechoslovak leaders defied Kremlin authorities and flirted with joining the newly organized IMF, they “were shot for even contemplating it,” noted Marshall Goldman, a Harvard University Russian expert.
“The argument was, they were selling their souls to the United States,” which dominates the two multilateral lending organizations by virtue of being their largest shareholder.
Looking back at recent history, it seems no less remarkable that the United States and its chief economic allies would warmly embrace the republics. “Twelve years ago, we were doing everything we could to starve them” by imposing a grain embargo, choking off exports to the region and boycotting the Moscow Olympics, Goldman said.
Yet on Monday, the United States and 10 other rich Western nations tentatively agreed--despite the pinch they are feeling from a worldwide economic slowdown--to activate a long-dormant emergency line of credit and use $6 billion of it to prop up the ruble. Russia also has been promised $18 billion in additional Western aid if it is willing to subscribe to the IMF’s harsh free-market prescriptions.
IMF Director General Michel Camdessus last week estimated that the other 14 republics will need an additional $20 billion in outside aid this year.
The board of governors of the 156-nation IMF, which devises broad-based economic programs for its aid recipients, approved membership for all the former Soviet republics except Azerbaijan, whose application will be voted upon next week after it completes remaining procedural steps.
The World Bank, the IMF sister organization that helps finance individual economic development projects, voted to accept all but Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. There, too, the only remaining obstacles to an official offer of membership are bureaucratic, officials said.
Although all the republics officially have applied for membership, they technically cannot join the institutions until their parliaments approve enabling legislation and they sign articles of agreement. They also must contribute the amount of funds that have been deemed their “quotas.” Russian Deputy Prime Minister Gaidar told reporters that Moscow expects to complete those final steps within weeks.
Some analysts have predicted that the IMF’s brand of austerity could ignite a political backlash in Russia and the other republics, but Gaidar downplayed such fears at a news conference after two days of meetings with high-level Western officials.
Until now, he said, the Russian people have accepted the pain of economic reform “with much more common sense than the vast majority of observers would have expected. I hope it will be the same in the future.”
Nonetheless, the next few years promise to pose an enormous test of Russia’s commitment to building a free-market system after seven decades of central planning.
Gaidar said that, by some economic measures, the worst is over: Inflation is expected to abate after decontrol of most prices sent it soaring earlier this year. With higher prices increasing the supplies of many goods, Russian citizens are spending less time waiting in line for essentials.
But even more serious problems loom ahead, he noted. In particular, a country in which unemployment has been “almost nonexistent” will probably face massive joblessness as it slashes its huge military production apparatus and closes down its inefficient state-run factories.
Western officials last week expressed concern over indications that, in the face of public unrest, Russia already appears to be scaling back its ambitious economic reform effort.
After meeting with Gaidar on Sunday, finance ministers and central bankers of the so-called Group of Seven leading industrial countries warned pointedly that aid will not be forthcoming unless the West is satisfied that Russia has committed itself to wide-ranging reforms, including:
* Reducing its budget deficit, which by IMF estimates is about 11.3% of gross domestic product, or roughly double the U.S. deficit proportionally.
* Bringing inflation under control, by slowing the rapid expansion of the money supply. Recent indications are that the Russian central bank has moved in the opposite direction by offering more credit to unprofitable and insolvent state enterprises.
* Establishing a legal framework, including the concept of binding contracts, as the underpinning of a market economy with private property rights.
* Reforming its potentially vast energy and agriculture industries so that they might expand production and earn badly needed foreign currency.
* Garnering enough foreign exchange to keep up with its debt obligations.
* Strengthening the ruble to the point where its value can be determined on world markets, alongside other currencies.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Nicholas F. Brady noted that as Russia pursues economic reform, “setbacks are to be expected and should generate neither surprise nor despair.”
But he added in a speech to the IMF’s policy-making committee: “History will judge us harshly, and rightly so, if we fail to seize this opportunity to achieve a truly global market economy.”
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