America From Abroad : Dear Mr. President

Foreign policy may have played second fiddle--or second saxophone--to domestic problems in the U.S. presidential campaign that culminates today. But in fact, whether it turns out to be President Bush, President Clinton or President Perot, the man who occupies the White House for the next four years will spend a lot of that time coping with global issues.

What kind of advice is the winner likely to hear from the men and women who are paid to be America’s eyes and ears in foreign capitals?

World Report asked Times correspondents in Berlin, Brussels, Jerusalem, Johannesburg, London, Mexico City, Moscow, Toronto and Tokyo to step into the shoes of the political secretaries of the American embassies in those cities and offer some tips in a memo to the new President . . .

JOHANNESBURG

‘You could help peace prevail here . . .’

The political landscape in South Africa is volatile and complex, Mr. President, but one thing is certain: Your Administration has an opportunity to play an important role in helping peace prevail here.

Knowing the players is a first step. Frederik W. de Klerk, the country’s president, and Nelson Mandela, the would-be president, are popularly portrayed as friendly foes. They are foes, but they aren’t friends. They are two men handcuffed together by their common destiny--but engaged in an all-out battle to control that destiny.

What each man wants from you, Mr. President, is support for his vision of a future South Africa. But what they really need is plenty of cajoling and pushing--and even threats. It will take such pressure to force them to engage in the horse-trading necessary for a peaceful compromise.

Not to be forgotten is Mangosuthu Gatsha Buthelezi. The Zulu chief, easily angered and immensely prideful, must be treated with care. He hates Mandela’s African National Congress. If he’s not appeased, Buthelezi can endanger the peace process.

All three leaders say they want democracy. But they aren’t even close to agreeing on the definition of the word. What they really want is power.

To De Klerk, democracy means giving up white control but keeping enough power to prevent black control.

To Mandela, democracy means majority rule. Period. It’s no coincidence that majority rule would probably make Mandela the nation’s most powerful leader.

To Buthelezi, democracy means all-powerful regional governments. Again, it’s no surprise that such a system would give Buthelezi massive power.

South Africa is not a problem that will resolve itself. While the key leaders fight over power, expectations among the black majority are rising, whites are increasingly afraid and the economy is sinking deeper into recession.

If blacks are not ushered into government soon, South Africa is likely to see more blood baths. The situation calls for vigilance from the White House.